The first forecast of corn yields by USDA is expected to be released with the Crop Production report Aug. 12. However, most Southern corn has passed through silking, the crop’s most critical yield-determining period.
One can then look at current crop condition ratings using USDA’s Crop Progress and Condition Layers to gain a meaningful signal of likely yield outcomes. According to crop condition data for the week ending July 26, most Southern corn entered the second half of July in fair-to-good condition, averaging a 3.56 rating on a scale from very poor (1) to excellent (5).
The average masks a sharp divide between the Midsouth and the Carolinas. Although weather can still affect kernel weight, much of the crop’s yield potential — and damage from June and early-July heat and moisture stress — has already been determined.
Conditions were near good from Arkansas through Mississippi and into northern Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama was good (4.18), while Tennessee and Arkansas were near good (3.98 and 3.96, respectively)…