Florida households looking to buy a median-priced home today are staring down a steep gap between what they earn and what it actually costs, with Orlando families needing 58.4% more income to comfortably afford a typical house and Miami families needing a staggering 273.2% more, according to a new national affordability analysis. The same study offers a sliver of hope, projecting that Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville and three other Florida cities could cross into affordability by 2031 as income growth outpaces home price appreciation.
The findings come from a housing affordability study released by HireAHelper, which examined median home prices and household incomes in 174 of the nation’s largest cities, as reported by WFTV Channel 9 Orlando. Researchers classified a housing market as affordable when annual mortgage and property tax costs do not exceed 30% of median household income, using calculations that assume a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 20% down payment, and a 6% interest rate. The national median home price currently sits at $390,300, and the study projects that figure will climb 35.1% to $527,525 by 2031.
The Widening Gap Across Florida’s Biggest Cities
Florida’s affordability crunch is not evenly distributed. Tampa households need 61.1% more income than they currently have to afford a median-priced home, while St. Petersburg households need 112.1% more and Fort Lauderdale households need 113.7% more, per the same WFTV account of the HireAHelper findings. The gap grows even wider in South Florida, where Hialeah households need 284.5% more income, and Hollywood households need 100.2% more, making Miami-area cities some of the toughest markets in the state.
Other Florida metros land somewhere in the middle of that spectrum. Jacksonville households need just 12.7% more income to afford a median-priced home, the smallest gap among the cities WFTV cited, while Tallahassee households need 23.9% more, Port St. Lucie households need 40.4% more, Cape Coral households need 6% more, and Pembroke Pines households need 93.8% more. In total, the outlet’s report counts 12 Florida cities considered unaffordable for the typical household in 2026, compared with states like Minnesota, Iowa and Louisiana, which the study considered affordable overall.
A Projected Turnaround by 2031, With Caveats
Despite the current squeeze, the same analysis projects that Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville will join three other Florida cities in crossing into affordability by 2031, as projected income growth outpaces rising housing costs in those markets. Nationally, the number of states meeting the affordability standard is projected to reach 36 by 2031, up from the current count of states like Minnesota, Iowa and Louisiana…