TEXAS — The flash flood risk is increasing across South Texas on Sunday as forecast models continue trending wetter. The latest operational and ensemble guidance has inched rainfall totals higher with each run, pointing to widespread amounts of 3 to 4 inches. Some locations near Encinal could see more than 5 inches, raising concerns for flooding on roads, creeks, and low-water crossings.
Encinal and Cotulla Lead Rainfall Projections
The highest projected totals are centered over the brush country between Laredo and San Antonio. Encinal stands out with around 5.28 inches, while Cotulla is projected near 4.16 inches.
Freer is expected to receive about 4.43 inches, with Tilden near 3.90 inches. Dilley and Pleasanton are both projected around 3.57 inches, while Pearsall could see about 3.33 inches.
Laredo, Hebbronville, and Zapata Could See Over 4 Inches
The heavy rain zone extends toward the Rio Grande, where Nuevo Laredo is projected near 4.34 inches. Laredo and nearby communities are likely to see similar totals as the core of the heavy rain moves through.
Hebbronville is also projected around 4.34 inches, with Falfurrias near 3.99 inches and Zapata about 3.82 inches. Farther south, San Isidro is expected to see about 3.18 inches, while McAllen comes in around 2.66 inches.
Corpus Christi and the Coastal Bend Expected to Pick Up Around 4 Inches
The Coastal Bend is also in line for heavy rain, with Kingsville projected near 4.25 inches and Corpus Christi around 3.90 inches. Alice is expected to receive about 3.82 inches, while Beeville and Kenedy come in near 3.10 and 3.03 inches…