NATIONAL NEWS (PLANO, Texas) — — Optimal Blue today released its October 2026 Market Advantage mortgage data report, which found that adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share reached a new high even as rate-lock volume declined across every major loan category. Total rate-lock volume fell 19% month over month (MoM) and 38% year over year (YoY). Purchase volume declined 18% MoM and 17% YoY but still accounted for 84% of October locks, while refinance share fell to 16% of total production. ARMs represented 17% of total lock volume, the highest share in Market Advantage data going back to 2019.
Mortgage rates eased late in October but remained well above year-ago levels. The Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) 30-year conforming fixed rate, the benchmark for CME Group’s Mortgage Rate futures, ended October at 7.15%, down 24 basis points (bps) during the month but up 43 bps over the past three months and 99 bps YoY. The 30-year jumbo rate held at 7.36%, with Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans at 7.00% and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans at 6.76%. The 10-year Treasury finished October at 4.94%, down 35 bps during the month, while the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the OBMMI 30-year conforming fixed rate widened 11 bps to 221 bps.
“October’s data show how much affordability is shaping the purchase market,” said Brennan O’Connell, director of data solutions at Optimal Blue. “ARM share reached another high, FHA gained share and first-time buyers took a larger share across the major agency programs. For lenders, that means the opportunity is increasingly in helping borrowers find the product and payment structure that works for their circumstances.”…