Cape Coral, Florida, lost roughly 9% of its home value over the past year. Chicago gained about 5%. Those two numbers, drawn from the same national housing market during the same interest-rate environment, capture a divergence that has become the defining story of American real estate in 2026.
Nationally, prices barely budged. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index, which tracks repeat sales on mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, registered a 1.7% year-over-year gain through February 2026 and zero month-over-month change on a seasonally adjusted basis. That 1.7% is among the weakest annual readings since the pandemic-era boom began.
But the national number is an average, and right now the average is hiding two very different realities.
Sun Belt prices are sliding, and not just at the margins
Tampa’s metro area posted a 3.6% annual price decline in the FHFA data. Denver fell 2.2%. Both metros had been cooling since late 2024, but the February figures confirm the softening has deepened rather than leveled off…