TEXAS — An intense Mesoscale Convective System is expected to develop and move south across Texas on Sunday, May 10, 2026, with initial discrete supercells forecast to fire near the I-20 corridor around midday to early afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Enhanced Risk Level 3 of 5 centered over a broad zone covering Abilene, Waco, Austin, San Angelo, and Fort Worth, with hurricane-force wind gusts possible as the storm system organizes into a robust and extensive MCS through the afternoon and evening.
How the Storm Evolves Sunday
The severe weather event Sunday unfolds in two distinct phases:
Phase 1 — Midday to Early Afternoon Initial discrete supercells fire near the I-20 corridor and produce:
- Large to very large hail
- Damaging winds
This supercell phase will be relatively short-lived as storms quickly congeal into an organized MCS.
Phase 2 — Afternoon Through Evening Storms rapidly consolidate into a robust and extensive MCS moving southward across Texas, bringing:
- Significant damaging wind threat
- Hurricane-force wind gusts possible
- Extremely low tornado threat due to lack of low-level shear and unfavorable storm mode
The Risk Zones for Sunday May 10
Risk Level Cities Included…