HOUSTON (CW39) – NOAA reported that El Niño has strengthened over the past month and is expected to continue strengthening through the rest of 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest events on record by the fall.
Forecasters now give El Niño a 97% chance of persisting through early spring 2027.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that can influence weather patterns around the globe. It develops when ocean waters near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific remain warmer than normal for an extended period. That warming can affect wind patterns, tropical storm development, rainfall, and temperatures in many regions.
In Texas, El Niño typically increases the chances of cooler and wetter winter weather.
What NOAA is seeing now
NOAA says El Niño conditions are already present, with ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific running above average. Forecasters also report atmospheric patterns consistent with El Niño and have high confidence the event will continue to strengthen in the coming months.
What happens next?
NOAA’s outlook shows the probability of El Niño reaching very strong levels increasing through the fall:
- August–September–October: 48% chance
- October–November–December: 81% chance of reaching very strong levels
- December–January–February: 54% chance
If that occurs, this El Niño could rank among the strongest events recorded since 1950.
Important to remember
Even a strong El Niño does not guarantee the same weather impacts everywhere. Instead, it increases the odds of certain weather patterns developing across different regions.
Bottom line
El Niño is already established and continues to strengthen. NOAA says there is a growing chance it could become one of the strongest El Niño events recorded since 1950 by this fall, with conditions expected to persist into spring 2027…