LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — A supercell-capable severe weather pattern is setting up across Arkansas and neighboring states this evening. Atmospheric data from Little Rock draws direct comparisons to the April 11, 2022 outbreak that produced 69 large hail reports and 9 tornadoes across the lower Mississippi Valley. Today’s wind shear is actually stronger than April 2022, though instability runs somewhat lower. Any robust supercell that fires tonight and matures into the overnight hours carries all severe hazard types.
Why Tonight Mirrors April 11, 2022
The April 11, 2022 event verified as follows:
- 69 hail reports across the region
- 9 confirmed tornadoes
- 8 damaging wind reports
- Moderate Risk area centered on Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee
- Storms were isolated to widely scattered supercells, giving each cell room to fully organize
The observed Little Rock sounding after that event showed:
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- Supercell Composite…