JACKSON, Mississippi — The Wednesday, May 6 tornado threat has sharpened significantly with a Monday morning forecast update placing Mississippi and Alabama inside a yellow-shaded 50 percent tornado probability core, a notable upgrade from earlier outlooks that showed only a 40 percent maximum. The highest confidence zone has tightened and shifted slightly east compared to previous forecasts, now centering directly over the Mississippi-Alabama border region for the period from Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning.
How the Probability Zones Break Down
The tornado probability map valid Wednesday May 6 18z through Thursday May 7 06z shows four distinct concentric zones tightening toward a well-defined core:
Yellow Core — approximately 50% tornado probability The highest confidence zone sits directly over central Mississippi into western Alabama. This is where the forecast has the greatest certainty that tornado development occurs during the Wednesday evening window. Jackson, Mississippi sits at or near the edge of this zone.
Green Ring — 40% probability Expands outward from the yellow core across a broader swath of Mississippi, Alabama and into Tennessee. Cities including Tupelo, Mississippi, Birmingham, Alabama and Memphis, Tennessee fall within this band…