Severe storms are expected to develop in southern Minnesota on Thursday, with large hail, damaging winds, and maybe a tornado or two possible from Mankato to Rochester and northward to the Twin Cities.
The short-term models have provided more clarity about what might happen. The biggest difference from Tuesday’s model runs is that the cold front is further east, putting the Twin Cities, Mankato, and Rochester under a slight risk (level 2 of 5 on the severe scale) of severe storms.
That risk zone is accompanied by the HRRR, RRFS, NAM, and European models showing thunderstorm activity on Thursday afternoon. We’ll see which of the models ends up being the most accurate, but take a look at them for the sake of seeing potential outcomes.
HRRR model:
RRFS model:
NAM model:
Euro model:
Storms will be most likely to produce damaging winds once they converge into clusters or a line, but any cells that can stay isolated after development could produce large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The RRFS model shows the most potential for supercells, and therefore, it’s putting some impressive updraft helicity tracks to show where some of the strongest cells could be.
Heavy rain will also be a factor…