Happy Father’s Day! It’ll be a very short post for that reason.
A few days ago it was looking like we might get as warm as the mid-90s tomorrow and/or Tuesday…maybe. Other forecasts have been a bit out of hand implying we could hit 100 or get close. No, it’s not hot enough for that. Remember last week there were some very hot forecasts that didn’t pan out either (Portland ultimately hit 94 and 97, no 100s)
WHAT’S AHEAD?
- We warm quite a bit tomorrow (Monday), probably just touching 90 degrees late in the afternoon. Almost all of the day will be in the 70s and 80s. That’s not a heat wave.
- On Tuesday the atmosphere will be slightly warmer, but at best we reach the lower 90s. Maybe someone in the metro area squeaks out a 94 or 95? Maybe.
- There is no hot/dry east wind and no hot upper-level ridge over us. That isn’t a heat wave weather pattern
- Temperatures cool slightly Wednesday and then a chilly upper-level trough drops in late Thursday for showery/cool weather Friday through Sunday, especially Friday and Saturday. I have high confidence that this cool/showery setup WILL happen late this week and into that last weekend of June.
So we just have two “regular” hot days ahead (no record highs) plus one every warm day. This is our current 7-day forecast, notice no First Alert Weather Days.
WHY HAVE SOME FORECASTS BEEN SO HOT?
TL:DR EXPLANATION
1) Official forecasts are mainly relying on a new tool which appears to be running too hot this season. Then TV stations or forecasters take that forecast and just go with it. Temps based on this new tool first triggered an Extreme Heat Watch, then that was downgraded to a Heat Advisory for much of the western valleys of OR/SW WA. Now that has been dropped south of Salem as reality has set in…