The Brief
- A large area of the Midwest could experience severe weather on Monday afternoon and evening.
- Southeast Wisconsin has a higher threat of flooding due to heavy rain.
- The severity of storms depends on Monday morning’s rain and placement of the warm front.
MILWAUKEE – The Storm Prediction Center has issued most of southeast Wisconsin under a slight risk for severe storms with an enhanced risk for Rock, Walworth, and western Kenosha Counties on Monday.
This potent system will have larger severe weather impacts in eastern Iowa, Missouri, and all of Illinois.
The severity of storms in southeast Wisconsin on Monday afternoon and evening will depend on several factors, one which includes where the warm front sets up at.
If the front is closer to the border, areas along and south of it have a threat for tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. Areas north of the front have a higher threat for hail and heavy rain.
The second factor for severe storms will depend on Monday’s morning rain and non-severe storm duration. The longer there is rain and storms early Monday, there will be less energy in the atmosphere and a shorter break prior to the second round developing, which will lower the threat for severe storms. If the morning round is quick and there is a longer break, then Monday’s late afternoon and evening storms could be more severe
Either way, heavy rain is favorable, causing a concern for additional areal and river flooding. There is a high chance of many areas accumulating at least 1″ of rain with the potential for localized areas up to 2″.
Rain and embedded non-severe storms can start in the early morning hours on Monday into the early afternoon. There looks to be a break from rain and storms around 2-3pm. Then the second and potentially severe storms will begin between 7 p.m.-10 p.m. before moving out around midnight.
FOX6 Weather Extras
Local perspective:…