KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI — A Marginal Risk, Level 1 out of 5, for severe weather stretches from parts of the central Plains through the mid Mississippi Valley, Arizona and the southern High Plains today, according to the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook issued at 11:32 AM CDT by forecasters Gleason and Lyons. Three separate darker green pockets within the broader Marginal Risk zone highlight where forecasters believe the greatest concentration of severe storms is possible.
Three Distinct Pockets Highlight Greatest Concentration of Storms
The first darker green pocket sits over southeastern Arizona, extending toward Tucson, representing one of three areas within today’s outlook where forecasters expect the best combination of instability and shear to support organized severe weather. A second pocket covers portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, while a third and largest pocket stretches from near Kansas City and Springfield, Missouri northeast toward the Iowa border.
These three pockets sit within a much broader Marginal Risk footprint that extends in a long diagonal band from the central Plains through the mid Mississippi Valley, then east through the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Broad Thunderstorm Designation Covers Much of the Eastern US
Beyond the Marginal Risk zones, a much larger area under a general thunderstorm designation stretches from Louisiana and the Gulf Coast northeast through Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and into New York and New England, along with a separate swath covering most of Florida. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible across this broader footprint without a specifically elevated severe threat.
The three highlighted Marginal Risk pockets, spanning from Arizona to Missouri to the Texas Panhandle, represent geographically distinct threats today rather than one connected weather system, reflecting the scattered nature of Wednesday’s overall severe weather potential.
Timing Through Thursday Morning
The outlook is valid from 1630Z Wednesday, August 5 through 1200Z Thursday, August 6, with the greatest potential for organized severe storms expected during the afternoon and evening hours across each of the three highlighted pockets…