WICHITA, Kansas — This is not a one-day severe weather event. A five-day severe weather marathon is now underway across the Heartland and Deep South, running from Thursday through Monday and hitting a different region each day. Wichita opens the week with a TOR:CON 5 tornado probability rating today. Little Rock, Shreveport, and Jackson absorb all severe hazards Friday. Oklahoma City and Wichita reload Saturday and Sunday. And by Monday, St. Louis, Evansville, and Springfield close out what may be the most dangerous five-day stretch across the Central United States this spring.
Each day is a separate event. Each day has its own bull’s-eye. And the atmosphere is not weakening between rounds.
Today — Wichita TOR:CON 5, Minnesota to Oklahoma Active
The highest tornado probability on today’s map sits directly over Wichita, Kansas with a TOR:CON 5 — meaning a 50% chance of a tornado within 50 miles. That is the peak value on the entire map today. Surrounding cities tell the full story of how wide this threat spreads:
- Wichita, Kansas — TOR:CON 5 — the bull’s-eye; tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds all on the table
- Kansas City — TOR:CON 4 — serious threat just to the north; Joplin also in this zone
- Lincoln, Nebraska — TOR:CON 4 — northern Plains pulled into today’s corridor
- Oklahoma City — TOR:CON 3 — conditional but capable of intense tornadoes if cap breaks
- Minneapolis — TOR:CON 2 — outer fringe; severe storms still possible this far north
- Salina, Wichita Falls — inside the core threat corridor running north to south through the Central Plains
Friday — Little Rock, Shreveport and Jackson Get All Hazards
The threat shifts south and east Friday into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South. The severe ingredients map for Friday shows a concentrated all-hazards zone — tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds simultaneously possible — centered over Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, and Alexandria. The red severe ingredients zone stretches from Dallas and Waco north through Oklahoma City and east to Oxford, Mississippi.
Little Rock and Shreveport are the named cities sitting inside the highest-concentration zone Friday. Jackson, Mississippi is on the eastern edge. Houston is on the southern fringe. This is a region that has been quiet for weeks — and Friday is when that quiet ends abruptly.
Saturday — Oklahoma City and Wichita Reload
Saturday brings severe thunderstorms back to Oklahoma and Kansas — the same cities that faced the worst of Thursday’s outbreak. The likely severe storm zone covers Wichita, Oklahoma City, Woodward, and Garden City. A secondary possible zone extends south toward Dallas, Waco, and east toward Fort Smith and Little Rock…