After sprinkles held our temperatures down through the Twin Cities Friday morning, we still await the true arrival of the heat wave which is coming this weekend. Just as a reminder, most of Minnesota is dry on Friday, at least once the morning sprinkles pass. But not everyone…
We will get some limited sunshine at times on Friday across the state. That sunshine primes the pump for severe weather chances in far northern and northwestern Minnesota Friday evening, with the mesoscale convective system line of storms. A lot of us will have temperatures in the lower to middle 80s; that’s just a little bit warmer than what we’ve had each of the past couple of days as the heat ridge develops to our south. They will also be a few tiny little leopard spot showers (that’s what I call garden variety showers because to me, they look more like a leopard’s randomized spot pattern) along the interstate 90 corridor. The main event for the state as a hole is the severe weather chance Friday evening. The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma is highlighted the northernmost 5% of Minnesota for a little bit higher tornado risk closer to 7 to 10 PM.
There could also be some damaging winds, along with a larger hail. Given the expanded drought that we just saw become official on Thursday, in the Boundary Waters, there is that increased risk for wildfires. Basically, we don’t want to see lightning over dry forest. That could act as a fire starter. On the other hand, the downpours that eventually come with the thunderstorms Friday should help Fire activity a little bit in the Boundary Waters. It does look like the heaviest rain will be more in Northwestern, parts of Minnesota, however. We cannot rule out an isolated tornado in the far north, closer to Lake of the Woods.
Saturday is the first big-time jump in temperatures we’ve noticed this week. Many of us will have abundant sunshine, a little bit more humid conditions, and the southern tier of Minnesota, and high temperatures going well into the 90s in many places. Saturday is still a pretty dry day. That’s apart from some scattered rain in the Arrowhead Saturday morning – that should offer a little boost for busy firefighters.
Sunday is perhaps the biggest question in the extended forecast period. How strong will storms become if we have too much cloud-cover? Will the clouds strangle the chance of hitting 100° in spots? A much broader region of the state – almost all of Minnesota, really – is in this yellowed risk map. That’s slight risk, aka level two out of five…