TUCSON, ARIZONA — A significant damaging wind threat is in place across southern Arizona today, with Tucson and Sierra Vista sitting under a 15% wind probability zone, the highest tier on today’s outlook, according to data updated at 1:30 PM ET Monday, August 3. Thunderstorms will fire over the high terrain of southeastern Arizona before clusters push west-southwest into the lower deserts overnight, with severe downbursts capable of producing gusts up to 75 mph as the primary threat.
Downbursts Capable of 75 MPH Gusts Target Tucson Corridor
The highest-probability zone, shown in yellow on the wind probability map, covers Tucson and Sierra Vista, carrying at least a 15% chance of damaging wind gusts within 25 miles of a point today. Forecasters say the primary threat comes from severe downbursts, intense bursts of wind that spread out rapidly when a thunderstorm’s core collapses, capable of producing gusts as high as 75 mph.
A broader 5% probability zone, shown in orange, surrounds the core threat area, extending north to include Casa Grande and stretching toward the outskirts of Phoenix, as well as east toward the New Mexico border near Las Cruces.
Isolated Large Hail Also Possible
In addition to the primary downburst wind threat, forecasters note that isolated instances of large hail are also possible with the strongest storms today. While wind remains the dominant concern given the setup over southeastern Arizona’s high terrain, any storm that produces large hail alongside damaging downburst winds could compound impacts for communities in the path.
Storms are expected to first develop over the high terrain of southeastern Arizona before organizing into clusters that push west-southwest into the lower deserts surrounding Tucson during the overnight hours.
Timing Through the Overnight Hours
The wind probability outlook is valid for Monday, August 3, with thunderstorms expected to fire over higher terrain during the afternoon before clusters track west-southwest into the lower deserts overnight. This timing means the greatest downburst threat for Tucson and surrounding lower-elevation communities will likely arrive later in the evening and overnight as storms move off the terrain…