SYRACUSE, N.Y. – Weekend weather looks to be changeable for Central New York. After a near-perfect start Friday night and Saturday morning, the sun and warmth will give way to an increase in humidity and risk for strong thunderstorms. The severe risk looks to be limited and only for some areas, but heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Saturday night and Sunday.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny through noon, then more clouds mixed in during the afternoon, turning mostly cloudy around sunset. Forecast computer models show a spotty shower or two in the late afternoon to the west of Onondaga County, but then scattered showers and a thunderstorm developing by 7 to 9 PM; most of the day will be rain-free! Turning warm, more humid by the afternoon, and a little breezy. Wind: SSE 5-15 with gusts to 20 MPH. High: near 84.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of heavy rainfall and minor flooding to the west of Onondaga County from 8 PM until 2 AM. A bit breezy after midnight. Wind: SE 5-10 with gusts to 15+ MPH in the evening, then 5-15 with gusts to 20+ MPH. Low: 66.
The Weather Prediction Center at NOAA suggests a low threat for flooding to the west of Central New York tonight. Between 8 PM and 2 PM, I feel there is a small chance for a thunderstorm or two with very heavy rainfall to the west of Onondaga County that might produce minor flood conditions. These areas include Cayuga, Seneca, Wayne, Ontario, and Yates Counties.
The Storm Prediction Center at NOAA suggests there is a low risk for a severe thunderstorm for much of Central New York during Sunday afternoon and early evening. Between 2 PM and 7 PM tomorrow, I could see one or two embedded thunderstorms which could produce damaging winds and large hail, but the overall risk is low. Because of a breezy wind during this time period, flash flooding risk is low, as any downpours will move along and exit any one area pretty quickly, limiting rainfall totals Sunday afternoon and early evening.
SUNDAY: Continued muggy and humid before turning cooler and less humid during the evening, with a breezy wind at times. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny at times with more scattered showers and some thundery downpours, especially during the afternoon, tapering off around sunset. Wind: SSE 5-10 with gusts to 15 MPH in the morning, then WSW 10-15 with gusts to 25+ MPH. High: 79, then falling late afternoon. Low: 59.
MONDAY: Dark-based clouds, breaks of sunshine, and more scattered showers. A better chance for more numerous showers to the north and northeast of Onondaga County or east of Lake Ontario in the afternoon and evening, with only a few showers to the south of Onondaga County. A pleasantly cool and breezy day with low humidity. High: 72. Low: 56…