With beef prices climbing to record highs, many consumers across the country, reeling from sticker shock, are wondering aloud why a ribeye steak costs nearly $22 per pound. Economists say the reasons behind it have been building for years, driven mainly by drought‑induced herd losses and strong demand — not just general inflation.
According to USDA Economic Research Service data, the average retail price for beef set a record in April at $9.64 per pound, up about 13% from the previous year. While inflation has played a role, agricultural economists Brenda Boetel and Jeffery Swenson say today’s beef prices are being driven primarily by a historic shortage of cattle meeting steady consumer demand.
“The most important factor is the shrinking U.S. cattle herd,” said Boetel, an agricultural economics professor at the University of Wisconsin – River Falls. “As of Jan. 1, the national herd stood at about 86.2 million head ‒ the smallest since 1951 and nearly 9% below its peak in 2019. Fewer cattle mean less beef, and when supply tightens while demand holds firm, prices rise.”
Drought casts a long shadow on the beef industry
The roots of today’s tight supply stretch back years. Boetel says a prolonged drought across major cattle‑producing states forced ranchers to sell animals earlier than planned, including breeding cows needed to rebuild herds. When pastures dry up and hay becomes scarce or expensive, producers often have little choice but to reduce numbers — a process known as herd liquidation…