The Michigan Wolverines lost in heartbreaking fashion Saturday when Hank Brown threw a 16-yard touchdown pass to Reece Vander Zee on the final play, handing the Iowa Hawkeyes a 20-19 win at Michigan Stadium. Iowa improved to 4-0. Michigan Wolverines playoff odds took the hit that came with falling to 3-1, and 0-1 in the Big Ten.
The damage did not stop at the scoreboard. Michigan, ranked No. 18 going into the weekend, fell out of the AP Top 25 entirely when the new poll came out Sunday. The Wolverines did hold on at No. 24 in the Coaches Poll, but the question is now a fair one: is this team already in danger of missing the College Football Playoff?
Michigan Wolverines Playoff Odds Fell to 6.2 Percent
After the loss to Iowa, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Michigan a 6.2% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. The same model has the Wolverines under 1% to win the Big Ten and under 1% to win the national title.
The margin was thin before Saturday ever kicked off. Michigan opened the season with a one-point escape against the Western Michigan Broncos, 13-12, and the odds would read worse right now if that one had gone the other way.
The AP Voters Did Not Wait Around
Iowa went the other direction in the new poll, climbing to No. 14. Michigan went from ranked to unranked in a single Saturday, and it happened at home. That reaction is part of why the playoff math looks the way it does: the committee weighs quality losses, and a one-point home loss on the last snap does not read as one…