A nor’easter is moving into New Jersey and the New York City area Thursday and Friday, bringing soaking rain, possible thunder and gusty wind, followed by the coldest air of the season so far. Northern New Jersey could see about an inch of rain or a little more, according to NJ.com, while southern New Jersey gets about a quarter to half an inch. The storm will dry out by late Friday, and a freeze follows.
This isn’t expected to be a major storm. The more important story is when it’s arriving. It’s the second nor’easter in two months, it’s coming early in what forecasters call a Super El Niño winter, and it’s hitting a shoreline that is still recovering from September’s storm.
When will the nor’easter hit New Jersey and NYC?
Rain spreads from west to east across New Jersey on Thursday morning and afternoon, with the heaviest totals in the northern and central parts of the state. The storm’s center reaches the New Jersey coast Thursday night, bringing heavy rain and possible thunderstorms to New York City. Travel could get harder late Thursday into Friday as the wind picks up.
On Friday, the low moves north near Long Island and strengthens into a more typical nor’easter, according to FOX Weather. New York City should dry out by late Friday. The National Weather Service says computer models now favor a slightly faster storm with less rain, so totals may come in lower than earlier forecasts.
Will the nor’easter bring snow?
Not to the city. A few wet flakes could mix in north and northeast of the city overnight Thursday and in higher parts of northwestern New Jersey, but no accumulation is expected there. AccuWeather says the Poconos could get a slushy coating and parts of the Hudson Valley could see 1 to 3 inches. FOX Weather says the highest elevations, including New Hampshire’s and Maine’s White Mountains, Vermont’s Green Mountains and New York’s Adirondacks, could get 5 to 8 inches.
How cold will it get after the storm?
Cold enough to feel like winter. Friday’s highs will stay in the 40s across most of New Jersey, and overnight lows into Saturday will drop into the 20s to low 30s. That will likely bring the first freeze of the season to parts of southern New Jersey. Saturday’s northwest wind gusts could reach about 35 mph. FOX Weather says more than 110 million people across the Northeast and nearby areas could see afternoon highs stuck in the 30s this weekend. Dry weather returns this weekend and lasts into the middle of next week.
Why does this nor’easter matter for the Jersey Shore?
The forecast calls only for minor tidal flooding during high tides Thursday and Friday. The concern is the shape of the coast. During September’s nor’easter, the governors of New York and New Jersey declared states of emergency for all coastal counties. State climatologist John Krasting of Rutgers says that storm caused the worst erosion since Superstorm Sandy in some places and left steep cliffs where dunes used to stand at Holgate on Long Beach Island. Those dunes and wide beaches are the Shore’s first defense against winter flooding…