The economic forecast for Alaska’s fastest-growing real estate market in 2026 could be summed up as “cloudy, with chances of intermittent sunshine.”
A slow market at the end of 2025 perked up in the new year. “The first week of January, we suddenly got lots of calls, and they were mostly for very small office spaces,” says Jenny Willardson, principal broker at Elevate Commercial. Larger to mid-size commercial spaces stayed vacant, but she began to see hope in other sectors. Willardson says, “Retail started to pick up. But industrial [real estate], I do believe, is going to be the headline for 2026 real estate here in the Valley.”
Warning Signs and Hope
Elevate Commercial held its fifth annual Mat-Su Commercial Investment and Development Forum on April 17 at Best Western Lake Lucille Inn. Willardson shared trends she’s seeing in the commercial sector, and then she yielded the lectern to speakers from the UAA Institute for Social and Economic Research, Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, the City of Wasilla, and Matanuska Valley Federal Credit Union.
UAA assistant professor Brett Watson says he believes “warning signs are flashing yellow” for both the US and Alaska economies. Tariffs, stagnant job growth, and slowing consumer spending are colliding with rising inflation and flattening wages…