The Brief
- Some of the forecast models have been suggesting that the pending El Niño event, for the winter of 2026-2027, could approach the higher extreme of the very strong range.
- If this were to happen, it could be a record-setting event and may drastically affect the winter storm patterns.
Super El Niño?
OAKLAND, Calif. – “Super” is not an official classification on the intensity scale.
However, some of the forecast models, including from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, have been suggesting that the pending El Niño event, for the winter of 2026-2027, could approach the higher extreme of the very strong range. If this were to happen, it could be a record-setting event and may drastically affect the winter storm patterns.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring natural climate pattern that has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. While there are always changing patterns in the offshore waters adjacent to the Bay Area, the region that forecasters examine is over 3,000 miles away in the Equatorial Pacific.
This region is called Enso 3.4. This is the defined area where researchers monitor sea surface temperatures. If warmer than normal water temperatures are observed, El Niño conditions are present.
What determines the strength of El Niño?
A weak El Niño or a strong El Niño? The magnitude of the warming dictates the strength.…