No, Gonzaga, does not belong in the at-large conversation.
Not off of just one win at Kentucky. Not with its woeful résumé. Not based on its body of work.
After the Zags upset on Saturday over the 17th-ranked team in the country, the idea was floated on social media by a few Bracketologists that the West Coast Conference powerhouse was now in the mix to reach the NCAA Tournament. That Gonzaga, despite just one Quad 1 win, a 3-6 Quad 1 and 2 record, and a body of work as thin as a supermodel, was worthy of consideration. That its win over the trending-in-the-wrong-direction Wildcats was a victory that should worry bubble teams.
It should not. At least not where Gonzaga currently stands.
If the Bulldogs were to add two more Quad 1 wins, at Saint Mary’s and San Francisco, maybe there would be a case for them. I get they have very good metrics, a NET ranking of 24 and KenPom ranking of 19, but the most consistent thing you’ve heard from the committee over the years is the most important part of your résumé are wins over at-large teams. Gonzaga’s record against such teams is 1-4. Three of the losses have come by double figures. And the one win came over a Kentucky team that has a bubbly résumé, a 2-5 record in Quad 1 games, and is trending towards being a double-digit seed — if its current downward spiral continues — or worse. Another significant part of an at-large résumé is the Quad 1 and 2 record. Below .500 is typically hard to overcome. Gonzaga is three games under. High-profile non-conference opponents like Syracuse, USC and UCLA struggling have really hurt the Zags. The best part of their résumé is the lack of a bad loss. Their worst setback is a road loss at Santa Clara, which is Quad 2.