The heat dome, or rather large area of high pressure, sits to our southwest. The pattern we are in changes little over the next week. There will be chances for storms here and there, mostly during the evenings and overnights. These will be tied to disturbances riding around the area of high pressure.
Temperatures will also become a division with the hottest temps over western and southern Kansas with lower air temperatures over the northeast part of the state. Some temps here over the next week may remain in the 80s with the 90s/100s farther south and west. It does not mean it will be more comfortable as humidity values will be higher the farther east you go in the state.
Tonight, we have a Marginal Risk for severe weather over our central and western counties. This increases to a Slight Risk closer to the Nebraska state line. Damaging winds and large hail are primary concerns.
The tornado risk area is drawn just south of the Nebraska state line to include a few of our counties this evening.
Overnight, some storms will survive, and we may see a surge of scattered showers and storms develop east of I-135 into early Friday morning before fizzling.
Temperatures on Friday will range from the 90s over western Kansas with areas over southern Kansas in the upper 90s to 100+ degrees.
More storms are possible Friday evening.
There is another risk for strong to severe storms to the north.
Over the weekend and into next week, the slightest shift in the heat dome one direction or another will have an impact to the degree of heat we encounter. Also, weak disturbances passing around the high will also trigger rain for some, not for all. There does appear to be a stronger signal for Sunday and the middle of next week. If trends hold, we may have better and more widespread chances for rain.
KSN Storm Track 3 Forecast from Chief Meteorologist Lisa Teachman:Wichita:Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 69 Wind: NE/SE 5-15Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 99 Wind: SE 5-15Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 72 Wind: SE 5-15Wichita WeeklySat: Hi: 97 Lo: 70 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.Sun: Hi: 94 Lo: 71 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Mon: Hi: 100 Lo: 72 Partly cloudy.Tue: Hi: 98 Lo: 71 Partly cloudy, breezy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Wed: Hi: 95 Lo: 70 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.Thu: Hi: 94 Lo: 70 Mostly sunny.
SOUTHWEST: Dodge City, Garden City, Liberal, Greensburg, GuymonSouthwest:Tonight: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. 10% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 68 Wind: SE 5-15Tomorrow: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 100 Wind: SE 8-18Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 68 Wind: SE 5-15Southwest WeeklySat: Hi: 97 Lo: 69 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.Sun: Hi: 97 Lo: 68 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Mon: Hi: 99 Lo: 68 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Tue: Hi: 96 Lo: 67 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Wed: Hi: 93 Lo: 66 Partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.Thu: Hi: 93 Lo: 67 Partly cloudy.
NORTHWEST: Colby, Goodland, Hill City, Oberlin, McCookNorthwest:Tonight: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 67 Wind: SE/SW 5-15Tomorrow: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms. Hi: 98 Wind: SW/SE 5-15Tomorrow Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. 20% chance of showers and storms. Lo: 65 Wind: SE 5-15Northwest WeeklySat: Hi: 91 Lo: 67 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.Sun: Hi: 91 Lo: 67 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Mon: Hi: 95 Lo: 67 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Tue: Hi: 91 Lo: 66 Partly cloudy. 20% chance of showers and storms.Wed: Hi: 88 Lo: 65 Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. 10% chance of showers and storms.Thu: Hi: 88 Lo: 64 Partly cloudy…