Early morning forecast model data is trending toward a stormy late-afternoon and evening across parts of Central Texas ahead of a cold front pushing through tomorrow. Although severe weather isn’t guaranteed, there’s enough of a risk for severe storms to make today a First Alert Weather Day
Two types of storms, but the same overall hazards
Today’s severe weather risk is either at a level 1 or level 2 of 5 depending on where you live. The higher severe storm chances are closer to the Metroplex as opposed to Austin, and it’s storms that fire up in North Texas that will be our main concern for severe weather.
If any isolated storms form in Central Texas after 4 PM, those isolated storms could contain very large hail, strong wind gusts, and potentially a stray tornado or two.
The better storm chances will come from a cluster/line of storms that’ll move in from North Texas near and after sunset. These storms will also have a hail, wind gust, and tornado threat, but the threat will shift to more of a wind gust risk after sunset.
Start monitoring for storms after 3 PM today
Just like we saw on Monday, the exceptionally warm and humid atmosphere could lend itself to a stray pop-up strong storm from roughly 3 PM to 7 PM. While the entire area has a chance to see one of these pop-up storms, they’re most likely to form (if they do) west of I-35. It’s only a 20% chance for these storms to form, but storms will be impactful if they do…