(KMDL-FM) The Atlantic Hurricane season for 2026 will officially begin on June 1st. That tropical season will run through November 30th. Already, reputable forecast outlets have offered their insight and opinion on just how busy the storm season will be. Here in Louisiana, nestled at the top of the northern Gulf Coast, we have a vested interest in following tropical weather.
Colorado State University has been one of the leading forecast outlets in predicting tropical weather. They have released their new outlook for 2026, including a parish-by-parish breakdown of the probability of a named storm or a hurricane making landfall in each coastal parish.
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Why Landfall Predictions Are So Important in Louisiana
The parish-by-parish breakdown is important to understand because while hurricanes are very large weather systems, the central core of the storm, or the eye, is where the most destructive winds are. Compared to the larger scope of the storm, that is a much smaller area, which is why understanding and pinpointing landfall is so important for the protection of life and property.
Naturally, the landfall probabilities in a given state are affected by just how long the coastline in that state is. For example, Florida, which has a long coastline on the Atlantic and the Gulf, has a 74% probability of a named storm impacting this season. By contrast, states such as Connecticut and Delaware with smaller coastlines have an impact probability of 16%.
What is the Probability that Louisiana, Texas, or Mississippi could have a landfall?
According to Colorado State research, the probability of impact from a landfalling system on the Louisiana coast is 52%. For our neighbors in Texas, the probability is 48%. Off to the east, the counties of the Mississippi Gulf Coast have a 40% chance of a named storm impacting their coastline, while in Alabama, the probability percentage is listed at 45%…