BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KBAK/KBFX) — The heat is finally showing up across the western half of Kern County as we head into the weekend. Up until this point the 100 degree days were few and far between, especially compared to previous years. Looking back over the last 6, only 1 year came in with even less 100-degree-days in Bakersfield through July 9th and that was 2023 at 6.
High pressure that hung out offshore of Southern California for a couple of days is forecast to lift up and over the area, quickly setting up over Utah during the day on Saturday.
This will position a favorable east-southeasterly flow out of northern Mexico into southern and central parts of California. Upper-level clouds should increase as the atmosphere responds to the changing pressure pattern, with even bigger changes in store to follow, since plenty of monsoonal moisture has been building over that part of the world in recent days.
Models have been persistent in depicting disturbances, or embedded atmospheric waves, in the southeast flow. As moisture increases across the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the warm airmass will become more unstable. Those disturbances could act as triggers to pop off “elevated” convective showers and thunderstorms, possibly as early as Saturday night or Sunday.
Since the forecast data suggests cloud bases in the 12,000 – 15,000 foot level we should be on guard for the possibility of “dry lightning” which occurs when little to no rain accompanies certain thunderstorms. Summer wildfires are known to begin as a result of dry lightning. In addition, since the air from the ground up to the clouds will most likely be very dry still, a lot of the rain initially falling from the clouds will probably evaporate on its downward journey. This could be a recipe for downburst winds, otherwise known as “microbursts” that could send gusty winds to parts of the area where any activity does form. This is another reason why the wildfire hazard could be elevated during the beginning of this monsoon event.
Once the pattern establishes, models portray it sticking around for a while. This means hot, and humid at times weather will continue to work together for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the deserts to the mountains, into the KRV and occasionally even into the South Valley…