DES MOINES, IOWA — The Storm Prediction Center issued a Day 3 Outlook early Saturday morning placing a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms late Monday into Monday night across parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, confirming and adding official weight to earlier private forecasts that had already flagged this same window for severe weather.
SPC Places a Marginal Risk for Late Monday Into Monday Night
The outlook, issued at 0714Z on September 12 by SPC forecaster Kerr, places a Marginal Risk, Level 1 of 5, across a stretch of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, valid from 1200Z Monday, September 14, through 1200Z Tuesday, September 15. That window translates to roughly 7 a.m. Central time Monday through 7 a.m. Tuesday, with forecasters specifically flagging late Monday into Monday night as the period of greatest concern.
A Marginal Risk designation means isolated severe storms are possible across the highlighted zone, though widespread or intense severe weather is not currently expected as the setup evolves early next week.
Central Great Plains and Upper Midwest in the Crosshairs
The highlighted Marginal Risk area covers a stretch of the central Great Plains extending into the Upper Midwest, encompassing parts of the middle Missouri Valley region. That geographic footprint lines up closely with the corridor already being watched for Monday’s severe weather potential, reinforcing that this stretch of the country represents the primary area of concern as the new work week begins.
Residents across this region should treat late Monday afternoon into Monday night as a period requiring elevated weather awareness, given the confirmation now coming from SPC’s official outlook.
How This Confirms Earlier Forecasts for Monday
This SPC outlook lines up closely with earlier forecasts from private meteorologists, who had already been tracking a developing severe weather threat for the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest tied to a weather disturbance and warm front expected to trigger storms late Monday afternoon and continue through the night. SPC’s official Marginal Risk designation adds government confirmation to what had previously been a private forecast signal…