MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) – As talk grows about a possible El Niño developing later this year, one of the biggest questions is whether it will remain a typical El Niño or strengthen into a rare “Super El Niño.” The difference comes down to ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. A standard El Niño usually features sea surface temperatures running about +0.5°C to +1.5°C above normal, while a strong or “Super El Niño” often exceeds +2.0°C above average across parts of the Pacific Ocean.
During the summer months, El Niño can start influencing weather patterns across the Southeast even before winter arrives. A developing El Niño often leads to increased tropical moisture across the Gulf Coast and Florida, which can enhance afternoon thunderstorms and occasionally boost rainfall totals. Temperatures in the Southeast during summer El Niño patterns are often closer to seasonal averages thanks to increased cloud cover and rain chances, especially compared to the extreme heat often seen during La Niña years.
If a stronger Super El Niño develops, the impacts can become more noticeable. Summers are sometimes less dominated by persistent heat domes across the Deep South, and tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin can become somewhat suppressed due to stronger upper-level winds creating more wind shear. That can reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes overall, although it only takes one storm to create major impacts along the Gulf Coast or Southeast coastline…